The global shipping landscape is being reshaped by a combination of geopolitical fragmentation, trade policy uncertainty, and an accelerating, albeit uneven, energy transition. The long-held assumptions underpinning global trade corridors are now forcing a reassessment for all market participants.
For charterers, positioning for 2026 requires a clear view of these shifts and their direct impact on both operational and financial outcomes.
Operationally, charterers face higher volatility in commodity flows, particularly in agricultural staples and the critical raw materials essential for the green transition. While export restrictions on grains have recently eased, the concentration of supply in a few key nations creates persistent risk.
Simultaneously, aging infrastructure in mature economies, especially in North America and Europe, threatens to create new bottlenecks, impacting port turnaround times and voyage costs. The redrawing of trade routes towards emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, presents new logistical challenges and opportunities.
Financially, the environment is characterized by increased freight volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and unpredictable tariff regimes. The potential for trade to fracture along geopolitical lines, as forecasted by the World Trade Organization, could render established trade lanes unprofitable while elevating others.
KEY Risks & Opportunities
- Risk of Trade Corridor Contraction: A significant portion of global trade is vulnerable to fragmentation. Charterers risk exposure to shrinking trade volumes and declining freight rates on routes connecting geopolitically distant economies, particularly those involving China and advanced Western nations.
- Opportunity in “Safe” Corridors and New Cargoes: Trade lanes between emerging economies and intra-regional Asian routes are projected to show resilient growth, even in a fragmented world. Furthermore, the energy transition is creating a structural new demand for dry bulk carriers to transport critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel) and shifting tanker demand towards gas carriers and vessels capable of handling alternative fuels.
- The Digital Adoption Divide: The increasing sophistication of AI-powered predictive analytics for voyage optimization, cost modeling, and risk management will create a distinct competitive advantage. Charterers who fail to adopt these technologies will face higher operational costs and an inability to accurately price risk in a volatile market.
Strategic Priorities for Charterers in 2026
Executive Snapshot
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Reshaping Trade Corridors
The global trading system is navigating what the WTO describes as its “worst disruptions since the Second World War”. Rising tariffs, the proliferation of industrial policies, and heightened geopolitical tensions have led WTO economists to downgrade forecasts for 2026. This uncertainty is creating a new paradigm where trade is increasingly reconfiguring along geopolitical lines, a trend with profound implications for freight demand and voyage planning.
Analysis from McKinsey suggests that over 30% of global trade by 2035 could shift from one corridor to another, driven primarily by fragmentation. The report categorizes global trade corridors into three distinct risk profiles that charterers must consider:
This reconfiguration is amplified by a documented rise in trade concentration. OECD analysis reveals that global dependency on China for both imports and exports has grown significantly, making trade flows more susceptible to shocks originating from a single source. The push towards “friend-shoring” or re-localizing supply chains, while intended to mitigate risk, may paradoxically result in GDP declines and more volatile output for most countries, potentially dampening overall cargo demand.
As WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted, the current environment has created a “renewed appreciation for the stability the WTO continues to provide to global trade”. However, the trend towards fragmentation suggests that charterers cannot rely on historical patterns for future contract negotiations. Voyage exposure must now be assessed not just on economic fundamentals but also through a geopolitical lens, with flexibility clauses and risk premiums becoming standard considerations for contracts on “Uncertain” corridors.
Commodity & Cargo Volatility
The volatility in the macroeconomic environment is mirrored in the specific commodity markets that form the bedrock of wet and dry bulk shipping. Charterers must monitor policy-driven supply shifts in agriculture, structural changes in energy markets, and the emergence of new trades for industrial materials.
Agricultural Staples
A Q3 2025 analysis of agricultural markets reveals a deceptive calm. An OECD report indicates that export restrictions on staple crops saw a sharp decline of nearly 50% between August 2024 and June 2025. This was driven by major policy reversals, including India removing most of its rice export restrictions, Argentina ending its maize export quota, and Russia ending its prohibition on wheat exports.
While this has eased immediate supply pressures, the underlying risk for charterers remains acute. From January 2024 to June 2025, a staggering 85% of all export restrictions were imposed by just four countries: India, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine. This high concentration means that the availability of key grain cargoes can be altered by the policy decisions of a very small number of governments, creating significant uncertainty for voyage planning and freight rates. During this period, rice was the most affected commodity, accounting for 45% of all restrictions, followed by wheat (26%).
Energy & Industrial Bulk
The global energy transition is no longer a future prospect but a present reality shaping cargo flows. A 2025 survey of maritime leaders by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) reveals a clear industry preference for transitional fuels. A majority (55%) of respondents backed LNG as the most viable fuel for the next decade, with HFO equipped with abatement technology and biofuels also ranking highly. Confidence in near-zero GHG fuels like hydrogen and battery power for deep-sea shipping has waned, signaling a pragmatic, step-by-step approach from the industry. This trend suggests sustained demand for LNG carriers and potentially new tanker trades for biofuels.
Simultaneously, the foundational materials for this transition represent a growing dry bulk market. Production of critical raw materials is highly concentrated, creating new dependencies:
- Cobalt: Top three producing countries account for 78% of global supply.
- Lithium: Top three producers account for 92% of supply.
- Rare Earth Elements: Top three producers account for 90% of supply.
China alone accounts for over 60% of rare earth extraction and 90% of refining. As demand for these minerals surges, charterers can expect new trade routes to emerge from mining centers to processing hubs and manufacturing plants. However, like agricultural goods, these supply chains are vulnerable to export restrictions and geopolitical leverage, requiring careful risk assessment in charter agreements.
Infrastructure & Logistics
The physical infrastructure that supports global trade, ports, railways, and road networks, is under unprecedented strain. A projected need for $106 trillion in global infrastructure investment by 2040 highlights a significant gap between current capacity and future demand. For charterers, this translates into direct operational risks, including congestion, delays, and increased costs.
The largest share of this required investment, $36 trillion, is allocated to transport and logistics. A key driver is the deteriorating state of infrastructure in mature economies. In the United States, roughly 43% of roads are in poor condition, while in Germany, only 65% of long-distance trains arrived on time in 2024, partly due to overloaded and outdated infrastructure. These inland bottlenecks have a direct knock-on effect on ports, impacting vessel turnaround times and demurrage costs.
These challenges are compounded by structural shifts in the maritime industry itself. An OECD review highlights several barriers that add cost and complexity for charterers:
- Vertical Integration: The world’s leading shipping lines are making significant investments in port logistics, including owning and operating terminals. This consolidation gives them greater control over the supply chain, potentially at the expense of independent charterers.
- Market Restrictions: Access to port services is often limited by statutory monopolies or exclusive concession agreements. Furthermore, stringent cabotage policies remain widespread, with 78% of countries prohibiting some or all cabotage operations for foreign-flagged vessels, limiting operational flexibility.
- Geopolitical Redrawing: Supply chain diversification is actively redrawing trade routes, with a notable shift in investment and focus towards Southeast Asia. This requires charterers to build relationships and assess operational capabilities in new and developing ports, which may lack the capacity of established hubs.
Automation and AI are emerging as critical tools to mitigate these pressures. Ports are increasingly deploying automated guided vehicles, robotic sorting, and AI-supported maintenance to improve labor efficiency and productivity. These technologies promise to speed up inspections and cargo handling, offering a pathway to alleviate some of the congestion caused by physical infrastructure limitations.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND DIGITALIZATION
The digitalisation of shipping is accelerating, driven by the need for greater efficiency, transparency, and resilience in an increasingly complex market. For charterers, leveraging artificial intelligence and digital tools is transitioning from a competitive advantage to an operational necessity.
According to OECD analysis, predictive analytics powered by AI are becoming essential for firms to monitor real-time market information and anticipate shocks more effectively (OECD, 2025). The application for chartering is direct and impactful:
- Predictive Cost & Risk Modeling: AI models can analyze vast datasets—including historical freight rates, weather patterns, commodity prices, and geopolitical risk indicators—to provide more accurate voyage cost projections and identify potential risks before a fixture is concluded.
- Demurrage and Laytime Management: The increased visibility offered by digital platforms, from real-time vessel tracking to automated port call updates, enables more efficient management of laytime. This helps to minimize costly demurrage claims by providing verifiable data and anticipating delays.
- Streamlined Operations: The WTO’s plurilateral Agreement on Electronic Commerce, concluded in 2024, aims to establish global baseline rules that facilitate digital trade. This, combined with technologies like blockchain for secure transactions and cloud-based platforms for seamless communication, reduces the administrative burden of chartering operations (WTO, 2025).
However, this growing reliance on digital systems introduces new vulnerabilities. The OECD highlights the increased risk of cyberattacks, which can cascade throughout the supply chain. A 2025 ICS report confirms that geopolitics is a key driver of this threat, with a rise in state-sponsored or linked attacks (ICS, 2025). Furthermore, the shipping industry’s dependence on a limited number of global suppliers for critical digital services, such as cloud computing, creates single points of failure that could lead to widespread disruptions. A balanced approach is therefore essential, pairing investment in digital tools with robust cybersecurity protocols and contingency planning.
What This Means for Charterers?
As charterers plan for the upcoming quarters, these findings point to several key strategic pillars. Success will depend on proactive risk management, agility in capturing new opportunities, and a commitment to leveraging technology.
- Re-evaluate Trade Corridor Exposure: The era of stable, predictable trade routes is over. Charterers must rigorously assess their exposure to “Uncertain” corridors, particularly those heavily reliant on China-Europe and China-US trade. Contractual language should be reviewed to build in flexibility to accommodate sudden tariff changes or geopolitical disruptions. Conversely, focus should be placed on developing expertise and relationships along “Safe” corridors, such as the rapidly growing intra-Asia and China-ASEAN lanes.
- Prepare for Commodity-Driven Volatility:
- Grains: The recent easing of export restrictions on grains should be treated as a temporary reprieve, not a new norm. Given the high concentration of supply, charterers in the grain trade must maintain high-frequency monitoring of policy announcements from Russia, Ukraine, India, and Argentina.
- Energy Transition: The shift in the energy mix will continue to alter tanker demand, favoring gas carriers and vessels compatible with alternative fuels like biofuels. Dry bulk charterers should actively explore opportunities in the critical raw materials supply chain, as demand for minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel is set for structural growth.
- Factor in Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Anticipate longer turnaround times and potential for congestion at ports in mature Western economies due to aging inland infrastructure. When evaluating fixtures, build in buffers for potential delays. The logistical capabilities of ports in emerging trade hubs, especially in Southeast Asia, should be carefully vetted, as they may struggle to handle rapidly increasing volumes.
- Embrace the AI and Digital Imperative: The gap between digital leaders and laggards will widen. Investment in platforms that offer predictive analytics for voyage planning and risk management is critical. These tools provide the insight needed to price fixtures accurately in a volatile market and to manage operational risks like demurrage more effectively. Failure to adopt these technologies will result in a significant competitive disadvantage.
- Strengthen Counterparty and Geopolitical Risk Assessment: The rise in cyber threats and the potential for financial instability linked to geopolitical events demand a more holistic approach to risk. Vetting counterparties must now include an assessment of their cybersecurity posture. Furthermore, understanding the geopolitical alignment of the countries on a given trade route is becoming as important as understanding the economic fundamentals.